Oscars: Best Picture — Reminder: The Academy Selects the Most Liked, Not the Most Loved
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Best Picture commentary (Updated Feb. 5, 2025): This weekend, three major guilds — the Critics Choice Awards (whose final voting closed Jan. 10, before the whole “Emilia Pérez” drama), the Producers Guild of America (whose voting wrapped two days after the controversy erupted), and the Directors Guild of America (still voting until Friday) — will finally weigh in on one of the most unpredictable Oscar seasons in recent memory. It’s been 31 days since the Golden Globes, which feels like a lifetime ago. Since then, the awards race has been a whirlwind of unexpected twists.
At DGA, Corbet is favored, but don’t overlook veteran filmmaker James Mangold. He’s well-liked in Hollywood, and his Bob Dylan biopic, “A Complete Unknown,” has been surging in recent weeks. Over at PGA, that same film could pull off a win — unless Edward Berger’s “Conclave” snub has inspired members to rally behind it or Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked’s” sheer blockbuster success catapulting it to the top. Final Oscar voting runs from Feb. 11-18.
PGA Predictions for Best Picture: “A Complete Unknown” (alt. “Conclave” and “Wicked”)
Critics Choice Awards Predictions for Best Picture: “The Brutalist” (alt. “Anora” and “Wicked”)
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.
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Image Credit: Neon -
Eligible Titles (Best Picture)
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More Information (Oscars: Best Picture)
2024 category winner: “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan FilmMagic About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
