Oscars Predictions: Critics Choice, DGA and PGA Will Set Pre-Oscar Voting Momentum

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Overall Oscars commentary (Updated Feb. 6, 2025): Do you realize it’s been 31 days since the Golden Globes? Feels like a lifetime ago. Since then, the awards race has been a whirlwind of unexpected twists, industry debates, and, of course, controversy.

This weekend, three major guilds — the Critics Choice Awards (whose final voting closed Jan. 10, before the whole “Emilia Pérez” drama), the Producers Guild of America (whose voting wrapped two days after the controversy erupted), and the Directors Guild of America (still voting until Friday) — will finally weigh in on one of the most unpredictable Oscar seasons in recent memory.

Right now, six films are jostling for best picture dominance: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez” and “Wicked.” And even with all the chatter around one particular film (have we mentioned there’s been controversy?), this year’s race is still fluid. Anything could happen.

With final Oscar voting set to open on Tuesday, Feb. 11, these upcoming awards could provide crucial momentum.

We could see some surprising boosts at the Critics Choice Awards, where there’s no preferential ballot instituted. Sean Baker’s “Anora” has strong support, particularly in best actress for Mikey Madison and original screenplay. But don’t count out “The Substance” — it’s incredibly popular with critics, and Demi Moore’s emotional Golden Globes speech likely left a mark on voters who submitted ballots post-ceremony. There’s also a real possibility that its body-horror screenplay sneaks in for a win. Would that translate to Oscar success? It’s hard to say, but Critics Choice favors bold, original storytelling.

Then there’s Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist,” which could sweep the weekend. If it wins Critics Choice, PGA, and DGA, we can all retire the “wide open race” narrative — especially since preferential balloting at PGA, would favor A24’s historical epic. But come on, when has awards season ever been that simple?

At DGA, Corbet is favored, but don’t overlook veteran filmmaker James Mangold. He’s well-liked in Hollywood, and his Bob Dylan biopic, “A Complete Unknown,” has been surging in recent weeks. Over at PGA, that same film could pull off a win — unless Edward Berger’s “Conclave” snub has inspired members to rally behind it or Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked’s” sheer blockbuster success catapulting it to the top.

The final picks for the winners are below.

Critics Choice Awards Predictions

Film Categories

Best Picture: “The Brutalist”
Director: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Actor: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Actress: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Original Screenplay: “The Substance”
Adapted Screenplay: “Conclave”
Ensemble: “Wicked”
Young Actor: Maisy Stella, “My Old Ass”
Comedy Film: “A Real Pain”
Animated Feature: “The Wild Robot”
Foreign Language: “Emilia Pérez”
Production Design: “Wicked”
Cinematography: “The Brutalist”
Costume Design: “Wicked”
Editing: “Conclave”
Hair and Makeup: “The Substance”
Score: “Dune: Part Two”
Song: “Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez”
Visual Effects: “Dune: Part Two”

TV Categories

Drama Series: “Shōgun”
Comedy Series: “Hacks”
Limited Series: “Baby Reindeer”
TV Movie: “Rebel Ridge”
Actor (Drama): Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun”
Actor (Comedy): Adam Brody, “Nobody Wants This”
Actor (Limited/TV Movie): Colin Farrell, “The Penguin”
Actress (Drama): Anna Sawai, “Shōgun”
Actress (Comedy): Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Actress (Limited/TV Movie): Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country”
Supporting Actor (Drama): Mark-Paul Gosselaar, “Found”
Supporting Actor (Comedy): Paul W. Downs, “Hacks”
Supporting Actor (Limited/TV Movie): Robert Downey, Jr., “The Sympathizer”
Supporting Actress (Drama): Allison Janney, “The Diplomat”
Supporting Actress (Comedy): Liza Colon-Zayas, “The Bear”
Supporting Actress (Limited/TV Movie): Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer”

DGA Predictions

Film Director: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
First-Time Directing: RaMell Ross, “Nickel Boys”
Documentary: Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev, “Porcelain War”
TV Drama: Issa López, “True Detective: Night Country” (“Part 6”)
TV Comedy: Lucia Aniello, “The Bear” (“Bulletproof”)
TV Limited/Movie: Steven Zaillian, “Ripley”
Variety Series: Liz Patrick, “Saturday Night Live”

PGA Predictions

Best Picture: “A Complete Unknown” (alt. “Conclave”)
Animated Feature: “The Wild Robot” (alt. “Inside Out 2”)
Documentary Feature: “Porcelain War” (alt. “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story”)
TV Drama: “Shōgun” (alt. “The Diplomat”)
TV Comedy: “Hacks” (alt. “The Bear”)
TV Limited: “The Penguin” (alt. “Baby Reindeer”)
TV Movie: “The Greatest Night in Pop” (alt. “Carry-On”)
TV Variety: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (alt. “Saturday Night Live”)
Reality Series: “The Traitors” (alt. “Top Chef”)
Non-Fiction Series: “Welcome to Wrexham” (alt. “Conan O’Brien Must Go”)

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)